Uncensored Money Season Eight: Interest Rates, Inflation & Uncertainty: How to Stay Calm With Your Money

Melissa Browne: Ex-Accountant, Ex-Financial Advisor, Ex-Working Till I Drop, Now Serial Entrepreneur & Author, Financial Wellness Advocate, Living a Life by Design | 19/03/2026

Show Notes

If it feels like everything is getting more expensive right now… you’re not imagining it.

Petrol prices are rising.
Inflation is back in the headlines.
Interest rates may move again.
And share markets are bouncing around.

Add global uncertainty into the mix and it’s no wonder so many people are feeling nervous about their finances.

In this episode, Mel talk through what’s actually going on and more importantly, what you can do about it.

This isn’t about panic or drastic changes.

It’s about coming back to the fundamentals and building a strategy that works no matter what’s happening in the economy.

For more tips and resources, visit us at melissabrowne.com.au, on Facebook, Instagram or TikTok @MelBrowne.Money or send us an email at hello@melissabrowne.com.au.

Links mentioned in the episode are below

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Transcription

Mel: I don't know about you but everything feels expensive right now. Fuel is up, rates are uncertain. Certainly I'm recording this on Tuesday when we're potentially going to receive an interest rate rise, but if we don't receive it today, absolutely we can almost put money on it happening in the next few months. I mean your super balance is doing things that you'd rather not look at and every time you open a news there's another reason to feel anxious about money. And I get it.

This episode isn't going to pretend everything is fine, because it isn't really. But there's a difference between things being hard and things being hopeless. And today I want to help you find that line. Because I have to be honest with you. Some of the best financial decisions you'll ever make aren't dramatic. They're quiet. For example, they're choosing not to panic when everything around you is telling you to. So in today's special episode, I want to talk about what's actually happening now. I want to talk about what you can do about it and why staying calm right now might be the most powerful financial move that you make all year. So let's start with the thing everyone seems to be talking about lately, petrol prices and inflation. think, I don't think it matters who I talk to, inevitably the price of petrol come up. And we are seeing prices at over $2.50 a litre in many places. I was talking to my husband yesterday who said that one of his patients has just driven up to the far north coast of New South Wales and it cost them $800 because they were towing a caravan. mean, going away, your caravan used to be cheap right now. That's like bougie money. So let's just look at really quickly.

Why are we paying so much at the petrol pump right now? Because I've got to be honest, it should not be happening right now. It should have had a lot of trickle effect because for it to be happening say six or eight weeks, but we know how economics and demand and demand works. We are paying more right now. And here's why. I want you to picture the world's oil supply like one giant petrol bowser, like one giant petrol pump that you would be using. And a huge chunk at that petrol vows, about one fifth of all the world's traded oil flows through a narrow waterway near Iran called the Strait of Hormuz. It's basically the world's most important petrol pump. And in late February, as we know, the US bombed Iran and Iran's response was to block the strait to and mainly to Israeli and and American ships but also to a lot of others. And what effectively happened is the tap got turned off to everyone. So petrol prices jumped around 50 cents a litre almost overnight because suddenly the world wasn't sure where the next shipment of oil was coming from. Now Australia doesn't make its own petrol anymore we're an importer of liquid fuel which means global price shocks flow straight to our bowser, is what we've just experienced. And we buy most of that refined fuel from places like Singapore and South Korea, and we pay for it in euros dollars. So in the global oil prices spike and the Aussie dollar weakens, which it often does in a crisis, we get hit twice. Now there's no fuel market regulator that can control prices. I mean, the ACCC can stop price gouging, but it can't stop the market itself from just putting its prices up. And here's the kicker. Australia only has about 36 days worth of petroleum reserve. Now most countries aim for 90, so we are already running late. So that demand is already high and the supply is potentially limited, which is where prices go up. And vulnerability makes markets nervous, which pushes prices up even more. In other words, if you want the abridged Virgin, a warrant the other side of the world turned off a tap we depend on and we don't have much stored away as a backup. We feel it fast and we feel it hard. And that's why you're feeling the pinch at the petrol pump. The real question, however, is what can you do about it? Because the warrant around is not stopping anytime soon. So petrol price, high petrol prices are here to stay for the immediate future. So there are things that you can do, however, to reduce that cost. And I'm not talking about just going and buying an electric car. So here are a few things that I'm doing and that my husband's doing. So we're shopping around. So we're using fuel price apps to find the cheapest server nearest. And we're not being loyal. when prices are reasonable and you're a bit lazy, it doesn't matter really if what your local petrol ⁓ bowser is doing. And certainly our local one is really expensive. We know that. Whereas now we're avoiding that and we're going and looking for a cheaper alternative. But it's also understanding that there are apps that will help you find that, which is what we're using now. So ones include Petrol Spy, which is really popular all around. It covers the whole country. And it also shows historical prices so you can see how it works and the cheapest days to fill up.

Motormouth is another one and this uses color-coded dots on a map so you can instantly see where cheaper fuel is. Fuel Radar is another one and this lets you plug in your SuperMap discount vouchers and automatically applies them so you can figure out what gets you the best locations if you're a fan of vouchers. And then there are state-specific ones. So in New South Wales, it's FuelCheck. In WA it's Fuel Watch and in Queensland it's the RACQ's Fair Fuel. Victoria, I don't think that there is one currently. But other things that you can do are to fill up midweek. So petrol stations typically drop prices Tuesday to Wednesday and hike them on Thursday because they know demand will be stronger just before a weekend. And this happens even when times are volatile.

Check your supermarket vouchers. So Coles and Woolies still offer fuel discount ⁓ through their reward programs. Lighten your load. This one is one that we wouldn't care about normally. But if you are carrying some golf clubs or something in your car that you usually just store there and drive around with, take them out. Because if your car is lighter, it's going to use less petrol. Check your tire pressure.

Now, under inflated tires create more drag, so keeping them at the right pressure can improve your fuel economy and this takes two minutes at the servo. Drive smoother. So if you are someone that is like an aggressive, er, er, brakes, brake accelerator, brake accelerator, that's going to absolutely cost you.

So easing off the lights and anticipating stops make a real difference. Now this is a strange one and certainly we're moving out of summer in Australia. So windows versus aircon. So in the city, windows beats aircon, hands down. On the highway, close them and use aircon instead because of the drag on motorways, etc. So the drag from an open window at speed will cost you more fuel than the aircon does. So driving around in cities and CBDs, Windows down, otherwise aircon up. So there are things you can do to manage your petrol prices. And as your household expenses start to really feel the pinch, petrol is a massive one. So it is worth taking on some of these hacks, even if you just downloaded a petrol app and start there. It's a beautiful way to be able to reduce your fuel bill. The second thing of it's happening is interest rates are going up. Now whether they go up this week or not we can almost predict that they're going to with inflation between 3 and 4 currently it's currently sitting about 3.85. The Reserve Bank in Australia has said this is too high they're looking for it to be between 2 and 3 percent. Now what you don't realize though is inflation is affected by the price of things increasing.

And what you don't realize is that the price of petrol affects so many things because if we think of farming, farmers are using diesel both on their farms, but also for transport of that food to capital cities into service stations. The price of products for bits and bobs that are going towards it, the price of services. Because when fuel costs go up, it just doesn't affect you at the petrol pump. It affects transport, food prices, delivery costs. And it can lead to an interest rate rise because of those rising prices, thanks to inflation. Now, the question, if you know that that is coming, that I am getting asked a lot, is should I lock in my mortgage right now? And it's really important to let you know at this point that I am licensed for general advice with RASK not licensed to give personal advice. So everything I am talking about here is general advice only. you're seeking advice for your particular circumstance, make sure you speak to a financial advisor. But one of the questions I'm being asked a lot at the moment is should I lock in my mortgage now? So let's look at the case for fixing and the case against. So let's look at the case at first for fixing. So the big four banks are confident that they have already priced in rate rises in 2026. So the Reserve Bank of Australia already increased rates in February. And as I've been saying, another rise looks likely. Now, if that happens, your variable rate goes up with it. But locking in now, essentially, what the banks have already done is they've priced that future rate increase. They already think that one and potentially two are coming. So if you look at those longer term fixed rates, you'll see that they're already a bit higher. But if you are nervous that they will go up even beyond those fixed rates, then locking in now means you know exactly what you're paying every month, which could be genuinely useful when the cost of everything else is climbing.

So it's almost less about getting the best rate at the moment and more about removing one stressful variable from your life. That's what I would see the case for fixing being about. It's about removing that stress of rates going up and going, you know what, I know I'm paying a little bit more at the moment than I could be, but at least I know what it's going to be and I can budget for that. Now the case against locking in your mortgage now, are essentially that fixed rates are already priced in for uncertainty, as I said.

So banks have already built the risk of future hikes into what they're offering today, because they think that rates are going to go up. So you're not getting ahead of the market. The market has already moved. And if rates do eventually fall, which some economists expect to happen kind of gradually from 2027 onwards, depending on what happens with the world, if you wanted to change your mortgage or if you wanted to move banks with your mortgage, you could be forced to pay what's called a break fee to move. And that break fee could be, you know, as much as $5,000 to 15 or 20 or $25,000, depending on the size of your mortgage. You also lose the flexibility of an offset account and extra repayments. So if you've got a fixed mortgage, you can make extra repayments, but you are limited by how much you can make every single year. So the ability to repay your home much earlier. And especially if you got a large lump sum inheritance or something, you couldn't just pop it in an offset and save that money against your loan. But as you know, I'm not a fan of this or that. So what I want to also suggest is there is a middle ground. So and that is a split loan, where you have part of it fixed, maybe half and part of it variable. And essentially it lets you hedge your bets. You get some certainty on a portion of the debt while keeping flexibility on the rest. So it's not exciting, but for some people right now, boring could be smart. And certainly I've done this in the past where I just felt like I was building my business. I really had very little additional funds. And I thought to myself, you know what? could be making the wrong move, but it just gives me that sleep at night factor. So I did exactly this. I put half of my mortgage unfixed and half of my mortgage on variable. The variable could still have an offset, I could still pay that off early, all those good things, but it gave me more, more comfortability. So fixing your rate right now for the Cliff Note version is basically paying for peace of mind. It's just important to understand if you do exactly what that peace of mind is gonna cost you. But other than locking in rates, there is something else you can do. And this is something that too many people forget about. And the first thing before even fixing rates that I always suggest is go to your broker or bank and ask for a better rate. Because banks will almost always reduce your rate. And we, in our My Financial Adulting Plan community, 0.5 % is the average discount that banks will give. And that's been in times of rising rates, dropping rates, and rates being the same. But it's also, so it's understanding that. But also, it's being prepared to move because otherwise you could be paying a loyalty tax. And I've just been doing some speaking gigs with leading ladies, which is mortgage brokers and real estate agents and more. And it was a reminder to me, and if I've been on a panel with some of these incredible mortgage brokers and again and again and again, they said the same thing, that people, particularly women, are really nervous to come and speak to a mortgage broker, that we leave it too late. And often we come very apologetically going, my gosh, I know my accounts are such a mess. almost to a person they said that honestly, it's usually the reverse, that your accounts are totally fine or, with a few simple tweaks, they can say, look, come back in six months with this and this done and I can get you a better deal. So you're paying a loyalty tax by doing nothing. Speaking to a mortgage broker costs you nothing. And they'll be able to say to you, hey, you've got a great deal. That's amazing. Or you know what? I think we can get you something better. Or let me talk to your bank about a better deal where you are.

And course, third thing I want to look at that is making people nervous is share investing. Because yes, petrol is going up. Yes, interest rates are going up. But the thing that is also happening is that share markets are all over the place and they've dropped significantly since the beginning of the year. whenever I see that, again, people ask me the same question what should I be doing? Because they're nervous and they ask the question, should I just stop investing for a while? Like, should I just wait this out? But let's, what I want to do, because you know, I'm never going to say, well, this is what I think. I'm always going to want to look at the data. So I'm going to look, so I looked into the Australian data only. And I want to say that the global data mirrors this. So I'm talking Australia only, but global data mirrors this.

But right now, lot of Australians are watching this super balance drop, right? They're seeing the ASX drop on the news and they're thinking, should I just move everything to cash till it settles down? It's a completely human reaction. But here's what the Australian data actually shows. Over the last century, 81 % of years on the Australian stock exchange have delivered positive returns. So not some years, not most years, eight out of every 10 years on average.

The market is going up. The bad years are real, trust me. They are, you know, 55 % and 23%, like big drops, but they're the minority. They're two out of 10. And for those who stayed through those bad years, according to data, a $10,000 investment in Australian shares in 1991. So this is according to the Australian Vanguard 30 year share index using a 9.3 % return through from 1991 till now, through market crashes, natural disasters, the GFC and a global pandemic. If you had invested $10,000 back in 1991 and not added a cent since, it would have grown to $101,000. Not by pulling it out, but by seeing through all of those incredible crashes and disasters. But here's the part that really matters that I really want you to hear if you're thinking of stepping out. Fidelity Research looked at the Australian share market to the top 200 shares in the share market, ASX 200, over 21 years, a period covering GFC, COVID, the war in Ukraine and Gaza and high inflation. And what they found is that a $10,000 investment grew to $63,097 during that 21 years time, that period.

Before we looked at 30 years, this is 21 years, but all of those things going on. But here's what the fidelity peeps realized. If you missed just the 10 best days during that period, in other words, if you pulled your market, your money out and went, oh, just wait for it to increase. If you missed just the 10 best days, your return dropped from $63,000 over that 20 years to 37 thousand dollars. That's according to Fidelity Research. Ten days out of more than five thousand trading days and your return would have been cut in almost half. Because it's not about timing the market, it's about leaving your money and letting compound interest do its thing. But the cruel irony is that those best days tend to happen exactly when the market feels most frightening. So Australian super data shows that someone who switched to cash as the market dropped in early 2025, so in April last year when Trump announced all these tariffs, if you've got really nervous and switched to cash at that point, you would have missed out on the strong recovery that followed in late April and May. You would have locked in the loss and missed the bounce. So that's just one example in the last 12 months of this could potentially have happened. Now Vanguard Australia's research found that bear markets on the Australian share market last on average just 0.9 years and they're generally followed by bull markets averaging six and a half years. So bear is when it's dropping, bulls when it's increasing. The bad patch is real, it just doesn't last as long as the good ones. And I really want you to hear this. So it's scary when we're in a bad patch, but it never lasts as long as a good one.

Now, Australian super's own figures show that $100,000 invested in their balanced option 20 years ago grew to over $430,000 despite navigating the GFC and COVID along the way. Now, I wanted to give you all of these examples really to highlight the importance of leaving, of not being tempted to grab your money out. Because it also doesn't mean you ignore what's happening. It means you don't let the noise make the decision for you. The goal isn't to find the perfect amount to invest. The goal or the perfect moment, sorry, to invest. The goal is to continue to invest regularly no matter what. put it in language that my Peri and MetaPors sisters understand, to stay in the game long enough for time to do the heavy lifting. Because if you're in Peri, you're all about the heavy lifting. So it's letting the market do that for you by simply leaving it alone. Now, as always, this is general information, not personal advice. Everyone's situation is different. So if you're thinking about making changes to your super or investments, then talk to your super fund or financial advisor first. But historically, the thing that I really want you to hear, some of the best long-term returns come from continuing to invest during uncertain periods.

Not because we know exactly what markets will do next, but because time in the market tends to do better than timing the market. So when everything feels uncertain economically, like it is at the moment, those are three things that you can do with three costs or three uncertainties that are really potentially impacting you financially, as well as as always.

It's about finding if you need to find more cash, look for the freebie on our website, 20 plus ways to find 10K in 12 months. So what I thought I would share to finish this episode is what I am personally focusing on with my money right now. And what I want you to hear is that it's everything that I talk about. So I'm keeping a healthy cash buffer because I want to make sure that if something happens and I need cash from my business, etc, I've got access to it. So I'm actually putting off some renovations for six months and even potentially 12 months, because I'm like, you know what? I just want a bit more of a cash buffer at the moment. And that's something that I can push back. I'm being really intentional with my spending. So things that I might have said, yeah, yeah, sure. Obviously, I'm going to do that. I'm not at the moment because again, I want to protect that cash buffer. I want to make sure I have money to invest just being more intentional and it just feels right in the current climate. I'm continuing to invest regularly. the investing that I decided to do at the beginning of the year that I have been doing regularly, I increased it in January and I'm just sticking to that regular amount. No matter what, no matter what the market's doing. It's almost like I don't, can't automate on my platform. I think I probably can, but I don't. Just yes, I can on one for my super fund, I can't, sorry, I can on one personally, I can't for my super fund, but I just tend to, I'm in a good, beautiful habit of transferring it regularly. But for someone else, they might just automate that. I'm also reviewing my interest rates and my loans. So every single 12 months, I contact my bank and I ask them for a better deal. And I'm about to do that in three months time in my diary. And I'll just flick off an email.

In my business, I'm looking at how customers are behaving because their behavior is changing. I'm not presuming it's business as usual, and I'm changing and adapting as a result and more of that in April. But I will be making a big announcement in the next couple of weeks where I'm really overhauling my business as a result of what I see happening and changing in the market. In other words, as I said, I'm doing everything I talk about here.

Now, I know this stuff is heavy. You when the cost of filling your car up makes you feel nauseous, when your mortgage repayment is higher than it used to be, when your super is doing things that make you want to look away, it's genuinely hard. And I'm not here to dismiss any of that. But here's what I want to leave you with. Uncertainty has always been the backdrop to every good financial decision I've ever made. Because nobody invests purely in a calm, certain world. That world just doesn't exist anymore. And I know most of us have changed fatigue, which is why it's about creating these great habits, then setting them, automating them and forgetting them. Because that calm, certain world, it has never existed and it exists even less now. But the people who came out ahead during any time of uncertainty and change weren't the ones who had better information or better timing. They were the ones who stayed steady when steadiness was hard. Because you don't have to have it all figured out. But you do have to avoid the decisions you regret when things settle down. And they will settle down. So check your fuel out before you fill up. Know what fixing your mortgage interest rate actually costs you. Ask your bank for a better interest rate. Find more ways to find more cash and swap, pause and cancel your expenses. And if you're tempted to move your super to cash, sit with that feeling for a day. Talk to your super fund, talk to a financial advisor if need be before you act on it.

More steady and calm investing regularly for the long term, regardless of what the market is doing. It is not sexy or exciting, but that's the play right now. Thank you so much for listening. If this episode helped bring you a little calm back to your finances, share it with someone else who might need to hear it right now and subscribe and leave us a review and I'll see you in the next episode.

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